| Coffee
The recent acceleration in demand in the newer markets
for coffee will continue. The Russian, Eastern European and
Asian emerging economies are setting the pace.
The forecast for Western Europe is for sluggish growth because
markets there are close to saturation point.
Prospects are slightly brighter in the US following the proliferation
of coffee bar chains.
After falling in 2003-2004, world export availabilities will
revive in 2005.
Oil seeds
Demand for edible oils over the next season will continue
to be driven by growth in population and income, as well as
shifts in taste. High growth in consumption of soybean and
palm oils will be offset by steady or falling consumption
of temperate oils.
Vegetable oil prices (with the exception of palm oil) will
decline significantly.
| Sugar
Growth in population, as well as world economies,
supports world sugar demand. However, soaring
ocean freight costs are affecting prices as well
as demand in import-dependent markets such as
Asia. So most consumption will draw on stocks
built up over the last five years.
Weak demand in the former Soviet Union (due to
use of sweeteners in the beverage market) will
balance the higher shipments into India, China
and elsewhere in Asia.
After years of over-supply, the balance of global
supply and demand is shifting dramatically.
Managed funds and other speculators anticipate
a large hike in prices. |
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| Cocoa
Global consumption of cocoa will increase by 2%,
as it has year-on-year over the last decade. Despite
the record world production figure in 2003-2004,
largely the result of the Ghanaian crop and the
second biggest Ivory Coast harvest ever, production
will fall slightly in 2005.
The world price, although well down on its peak,
is relatively strong compared with just a few
years ago, so it seems that crops are being maintained.
The prospects for the future look good, with
many governments following cocoa-friendly policies.
For example, in Ghana the price-support regime
has boosted the planting of high-yielding hybrids.
World stocks start 2004-2005 higher in relation
to consumption, and will to stay well above the
traditional safety mark of 30%. |
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Grains
Global wheat consumption will continue to rise, thanks to
two factors: first, increased use in animal feeds in industrialised
countries, and, second, increased food use in developing countries.
As such, markets will start to tighten. Furthermore, bumper
US maize harvests in 2004 are unlikely to be matched and production
will fall. World maize stocks are estimated at 93m tonnes,
but this figure will fall over the coming year.
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